The U.S. economy made up significant ground in Q3 in what was termed as the quarter of re-opening. Reports have shown that GDP likely grew around 7.4% which is a record setting rate for one quarter. However, it is clear this rate will not continue. COVID cases are at a new high and there is much uncertainty with the election. The market has seen massive selloffs the last few days as well, and tech earnings were disappointing. There is still much confusion in regard to the fiscal stimulus and especially the vaccine, which was promised by the election by President Trump.
Most economists believe the economy will continue to grow as we re-open, but at a much milder rate. What do you think GDP growth and economic activity will be like in Q4?
I think that Q4 growth will slow compared to Q3. This is because the re-openings in Q3 were a temporary jolt in the economy and also the stimulus. I think unemployment will continue to be higher than we would like also. If another stimulus gets passed following the election that could create more economic activity, but I don’t think there will be any major economic activity besides the stimulus.
ReplyDeleteI think Q4 will be relatively big. Bigger than normal years, but less than the historic Q3 we just had. My belief comes from the fact that many people saved money from the stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. The Holiday season is approaching, and many analysts believe that there will be a lot of spending. But, who knows. If COVID-19 is still on the rise when Christmas and Black Friday roll around, they may still be afraid to spend money.
ReplyDeleteI agree, I did not think about the holiday season, which will likely yield a lot of spending. This will likely inflate numbers from what they otherwise would have been if it was a different time of year.
DeleteIn comparison to Q3 I think the growth will decrease but the growth will still be vey high just not as high as Q3. I definitely agree with you Mayson in that holiday season will have a great affect on the GDP growth
ReplyDeleteI think that Q4 will have larger growth due to it being the holiday season and with the population not spending as much money this year; however, depending on how the holiday shopping is done, we may see more of an increase COVID cases which may lead to another shut down in 2021. This could potentially lead the economy into a shut down cycle if it's not corrected.
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