Sunday, September 8, 2019
The disappointing jobs report would have been much worse without newly hired Census workers
The job report for August 2019 reported that an additional 130,000 jobs were added. This number, however, fell short of the 150,000 jobs that Wall Street estimated the report to be. In addition to felling short by 20,000 jobs, 25,000 of the 130,000 jobs added this month was from temporary census workers. The retail sector saw a decline in 11,100 jobs while the trade, transportation, and utilities sector saw a decline of 11,000 jobs. Should this shortcoming of job growth be something to worry about, especially with the recent inverted yield curve?
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I believe this issue is definitely worrisome! In the past we've seen how inverted yield curve's have lead to a recession. It should also be noted that not only are 25,000 jobs of the 130,000 temporary jobs, but also 165,000 jobs were added in july so there was a decline in labor force growth in August.
ReplyDeleteMany economists believe that we are at full capacity when the unemployment rate is between 4-5%. As of July 2019, the unemployment rate is 3.7%. This seems incredible at face value; however, it can be argued that this rate is too low, and the economy is losing efficiency. For this reason, I am not sure how big of a problem this is at the moment. The inverted yield curve is troublesome though.
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