Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Range of economists think the euro economies are moving into "golden period"

According to a recent Bloomberg survey of international economists across a range of companies and organizations, the European economies that have a single currency together (the euro) are heading into a "golden period" where they show have good GDP growth rates and low inflation. This is a big difference for this region compared with several years ago when the economic growth rate was slow and some economies actually shrunk because of high unemployment (for example Greece, Spain).

The reason why these surveyed economists are so optimistic about these economies in western Europe is because companies in this region are making good profits and investors have high confidence in the region's economic outlook. But the article concludes that average GDP growth of the euro economies will still likely be slower than in the US, although faster than the United Kingdom, which is trying to leave the European Union -- a move that has hurt investors confidence.

In fact, the International Monetary Fund economists think the good economic growth in the euro economies should have a positive effect on other economies in the world that trade with them. Basically, people in the euro economies may import more goods from other economies of the world -- which would result in a an increase in exports for those other economies, which could increase GDP.

Of course, these nineteen economies are actually very different so each economy may have very different economic growth than some or more of the others.The Bloomberg article doesn't really go into this. The article does however point out that different groups in these economies may have very different economic outcomes. So millennials for example still have high unemployment rates in some of these European economies--as high as more then 10% in some economies such as Spain and Greece. And a Reuters article recently reported that Spain's total unemployment rate is 6.38%, although this is much lower than it was in the past few years. Spain also has very different unemployment and growth rates by region--Catalonia for example which is trying to leave Spain has experienced a situation where 2000 companies with their headquarters located there have moved those offices outside of that region. This has caused job losses and lower investor confidence of course.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/from-lost-decade-to-golden-years-euro-economy-picks-up-the-pace
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-economy/catalonia-unemployment-jumps-as-political-crisis-drags-on-idUSKBN1D30T4

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