Sunday, October 30, 2016

Raising US interest rates would now make recession even more likely

This article talks about how a recession might occur by the spring of 2017, and a rise in the US interest rates would increase the likelihood of an upcoming recession. Liquidity is suddenly 'drying up', indicating that the supply of money is decreasing, pushing interest rates higher.
The nominal GDP, a pure measure of the economy, has decreased from 4.2% to 2.5%, a drastic fall that cannot be funded since China has already pushed its credit limit to $30 trillion making borrowing unlikely. The tight monetary policy suggests that money supply is decreasing, pushing interest rates higher. New rules for the money market funds have caused the stock of U.S. commercial paper to shrivel by $220 billion. The three month lending rates in the offshore 'eurodollar' markets have tripled since July to 0.93%, therefore sharply tightening conditions for global finance, and limiting the chance of foreign borrowing to fund its economy.
The gross domestic income has been flat for the past quarters, and the unemployment rate has risen to 5%, after bottoming at 4.7% in May. This shows that components of the economy - nominal GDP, unemployment rates, and Gross domestic income - have decreased, indicating that a recession is likely to occur soon.
The average price level is also increasing, and the "sticky price" inflation has reached 2.6%, higher than nominal GDP growth itself. The effects of stagflation, along with decreasing Gross Domestic Income, are detrimental, and affects the GDP per-capita. It also reduces consumers affordability to purchase a good/service, decreasing the aggregate demand of households, and decreasing aggregate supply of firms, since they lay off input/labor resources to cut costs.
These changes negatively affect the economy, thereby showing that a fiscal stimulus would be an alternative to negate the effects of a recession. Decreasing taxes, and increasing government spending has its advantages on households and firms, but decreases national saving, and affects the trade balance of an economy.

Link:  business.financialpost.com/news/economy/raising-u-s-interest-rates-now-would-make-recession-even-more-likely





2 comments:

  1. The Fed requires flexibility in its use of the monetary policy so it is not restricted in the future to adjust interest rates and address inflation. I feel like with all these economists and their assumptions I hope does not change the Feds judicious manner in its approach to economic policy.

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  2. Agreed the fed requires flexibility in this policy that allows for adjustment in both interest rates and inflation for a better cause economically. These assumptions are looked at greatly and hope economist opinion does not change the Feds actions.

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