Past is prologue? Why one trader sees a post-election recession on the horizon

Past trends show that the economy faces a decline when any new president gets elected. Sven Henrich of the NorthmanTrader and the analysts at Lombard Street Research have showed concern about the downturn of economy due to the change in president and the FED's equivocal decision about the interest rates.




The graph shows the decline that market experiences at the beginning of the first session of a new president. Sven Henrich thinks the trend could have to do with consumers' uncertainty during transitions between presidents but he also thinks the coming election is different from the rest of elections in the past as this time there is a lack of support for both of the candidates i.e. no one seems to have the majority support of the population.
He says, "I have no idea how this is reflected in consumer confidence, but it doesn't seem to suggest that consumers will be very confident with their new president."

A concern has been raised about how the S&P and Nasdaq have touched new heights but the overall market performance has shown no improvement. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/past-is-prologue-why-one-trader-sees-a-post-election-recession-on-the-horizon.html