Thursday, September 4, 2014

Fed's Fisher sees hints of price pressures despite soft July data

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/05/us-usa-fed-fisher-idUSKBN0H000L20140905?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Economy2010

Reuters discusses Fisher's views on the "cooling" inflation rates. However, his views, which "[strip] out the most volatile price movements, showed fast increases in July in some the index's largest, least volatile components." While this does provide a more insightful overall look, allowing us to better see where in the economy inflation is increasing or decreasing, "the jury is out" on whether or not it will be enough; volatile goods are still a large portion of the economy. A continued decreased inflation rate, especially if the Fed plans to raise it's interest rates, could prove problematic.

Another thing to note is that, even if inflation were to continue at the same rate, wages are currently being kept flat for many businesses (http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/09/yellen_is_a_goo.html and associated sources). Because of this, the current cooling of the economy could lead to the flattened wages remaining as such for longer. For businesses that rely on these heavily volatile goods (for example airlines), this could mean  wage cuts that aren't implicit or even more layoffs.

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