There’s circumstantial evidence that Russia may have yanked
tens of billions of dollars in assets out of a custodial account at the U.S.
Federal Reserve, possibly to keep it from being frozen by U.S. authorities in
case of heightened conflict in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve holds U.S. Treasury
securities in custody on behalf of foreign central banks and other official
institutions. It’s a decline of $105 billion, or 3.5 percent, from March 5 to
March 12. Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers
Harriman, suspects Russia accounts for a big share of the draw-down. “It’s just
to avoid being frozen,” Chandler says, not a protest against the U.S. He adds,
”You don’t let your politics dictate these decisions.” In a note to clients,
Chandler wrote, “The logic now is that Russia is bracing for the next round of
sanctions.” He pointed out that this has happened before. In 1957, Russia
shifted dollars from the U.S. to London, he said, fearing the U.S. would punish
Russia financially for its invasion of Hungary.
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