Home Market's Misery May Be 'Buy' Sign

The first-time home buyer's credit has dried up, and home prices are down 29 percent from their 2006 peak. On Dec. 9 the latest release of the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds data shows the value of homeowner equity in the third quarter of this year at $6.4 trillion—52 percent lower than four years ago.Hanging over the market is an ominous combination of a weak economic recovery, near 10 percent unemployment rate, an inventory of 8 million or so distressed properties, and uncertainty over the legality of foreclosures by major mortgage loan servicers. But does that mean it's a bad idea to buy a home? I don't believe so, based on some dispassionate analysis. For the long-term homeowner (or patient investor), a home appears to be one of the better investments around, with minimal downside risk. "Housing is priced to earn its historic real rate of return of 0.5 percent to 1 percent and interest rates are low," says Morris Davis, professor of real estate and urban land economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "Now may be a once-in-a-lifetime time to buy."