President Trump's campaign promise to follow through with mass deportations of
undocumented immigrants as of 2025 has officially started. Columbia recently
accepted the president's flights of undocumented immigrants after Trump
threatened Tariffs. According to Michael Gapen (Morgan Stanley’s
chief US Economist), the impact of this could slow down the economy's
future growth.
Previous studies found that anti-immigration laws set in place in Arizona between
2008 and 2015 showed that each year of deportations GDP decreased by 2%
per year. Predicted results of the future economy from Morgan Stanley GDP will
grow at a rate of 1.9% which is low compared to the 2.5% growth observed in
2023. Deportations could also potentially cause a slowing of employment rates,
as well as a decrease in productivity rates according to JPMorgan’s Michael
Feroli.
Megan Leonhardt (2025), Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Play Havoc with the Economy, Barron’s. https://www.barrons.com/articles/trumps-immigration-crackdown-could-play-havoc-with-the-economy-f4c41411
This post sheds light on the significant economic implications of mass deportations. The potential slowdown in future growth, as highlighted by Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen, is concerning. The historical data from Arizona’s anti-immigration laws showing a 2% annual GDP decrease is particularly striking.
ReplyDeleteThe predicted GDP growth rate of 1.9%, compared to 2.5% in 2023, underscores the potential economic impact. Additionally, the potential slowing of employment and productivity rates, as noted by JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli, adds to the concerns.
Overall, this post effectively highlights the complex and far-reaching effects of deportation on the economy.
Balancing border security with the need for economic growth is seems like walking tightrope. Arizona's anti-immigration legislation, which were linked to a 2% yearly decline in GDP, provide compelling evidence of how these policies might impact economic progress. Forecasts already indicate a decline to 1.9% growth as opposed to the more robust 2.5% in 2023. Although addressing immigration concerns may be the goal, it is evident that there are serious hazards that could affect employment, productivity, and the stability of the economy as a whole. There is a fine line between need for economic growth and border security, but it is hard to keep your balance.
ReplyDeleteThis is certainly a hot topic issue that is at the forefront of many people watching the US economy. The historical data from Arizonas anti immigration policy could lead to some noticeable GDP contractions. A decline from 2.5% to 1.9% in GDP growth, as Morgan Stanley predicts, is not insignificant as it represents billions of dollars in lost economic activity. While immigration policy is a complex and politically charged issue, it’s important to consider the economic trade-offs. If history is any indicator, mass deportations could lead to unintended economic consequences that harm both businesses and consumers.
ReplyDeleteThe economic impact of mass deportations is a crucial factor, especially given past data showing declines in GDP following strict immigration policies. A projected slowdown to 1.9% growth suggests that labor shortages and decreased productivity could affect economic performance. While immigration policy is often framed as a security issue, its economic consequences, especially for industries reliant on immigrant labor, shouldn't be overlooked. It raises the question: Will businesses and policymakers adjust their strategies to counteract these effects, or will the economy have to absorb the shock?
ReplyDelete