By 2050, three quarters of countries are forecasted to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female. These falling fertility rates will have a major impact on the global economy. By 2100, just six countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates: The African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and central Asia’s Tajikistan. In the future, the shrinking workforces due to population decrease will require new political and fiscal policies to help stable the economy, even as advancements in technology provide support. The article mentions that AI may be able to diminish the economic impact of declining workforces, but even if output per worker stays the same, the total size of the economy will tend to decline as the workforce declines.
With a decline in population-replacing birth rates, how will this affect things such as global warming and pollution? Also the smaller workforce will surely be a problem if this rate persists.
ReplyDeleteI find this interesting as it goes back to class when talking about quality of life measure. Whenever these measures go down, so doesn't the economy.
ReplyDeleteWith AI improving worker productivity and declining birth rates, could this improve GDP per capita globally?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if AI would be at a place in 2050 where it can combat a declining population like this. There must be some valuable skills and jobs that AI will not be able to fill and we will struggle to counteract a declining workforce. This is interesting because I read an article about a big jump in min. wage in CA, and many people were worried about a more competitive job market. I wonder if min. wage increasing could work with a declining population to balance. If the workforce is more competitive but we are decreasing our population what will that effect be?
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