The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that, for the first time in 2022, the economy has posted its first positive growth. These numbers are a potential sigh of relief for Americans for the time being. For the period, GDP has increased at 2.6% pace, which is 0.3% better than expected. A common principle for an economy to be in a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and this positive reading is following two consecutive negative readings, so hopefully this is a sign for better times. Ultimately, the National Bureau of Economic Research will decide if America is truly in a recession. This growth came mostly from a narrowing of the trade deficit, and most economists do not believe that this level of deficit will happen again in later quarters. With that being said, it is unlikely that this strength will be able to be sustained. However, there may still be hope for a soft landing, but it's hard to believe that this is actually good, forward momentum. The fed is now under pressure to make a decision due to this positive growth. Should they continue to hike up interest rates with inflation being lower and GDP higher? In the last six recessions, there was a positive growth of GDP right before the downfall, so anything is possible, but it does look like a soft landing is unlikely, and the fed will most likely continute to raise interest rates higher than the economy can keep up with.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-gdp-accelerated-at-2point6percent-pace-in-q3-better-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html
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