Friday, September 30, 2022

U.S. weekly jobless claims hit five-month low; economic picture darkening

This article discusses how despite the Fed’s policies, the unemployment claims in the United States have fallen to their lowest level in the last 5 months. The Fed is continuing to use monetary policy in an attempt of decreasing inflation. They are increasing interest rates and showing no signs of slowing down soon. Normally this would lead to employers cutting back on hiring, however, due to the current labor market situation economists are seeing an increasing trend of companies hoarding labor. They mention the current strength of the labor market despite an economy that is struggling. Continuing jobless claims are dropping consistently, by about 65,000 in the period between August and September surveys, while the unemployment rose from 3.5% to 3.7% in August.

            After emphasizing the strength of the tight labor market, the article discusses the current struggles facing the economy. First of all, they mention the Thursday release of a report from the Commerce Department where the gross domestic product decreased at an unrevised 0.6% annualized rate in the second quarter. Further details mentioned are that the consumer spending portion of GDP is better off than what was previously thought, however, they state that corporate profits and wages were revised to be lower than initially expected. Due to this GDI was corrected to an increase of 0.1% rather than the previous estimation of 1.4%. The article further compares GDP and GDI, mentioning the revisions in data and the economic recovery since Covid-19.

            Finally, the article references the business inventory troubles of recent times, stating that now companies have larger inventories than they originally thought or intended they would. In most cases, inventory is paid for with borrowed money, and having larger inventories makes them increasingly sensitive to the Fed’s policies. This can create issues for the company and the economy as companies will be looking to cut back on inventory.

1 comment:

  1. Hello Vincent! I would like to comment on your last paragraph about large inventories. I have been analyzing Scotts miracle gro a company that is typically found in the gardening section at home depot. Scotts miracle gro found themselves in large amounts of inventory in 2021 and continued into 2022. Due to the pandemic many Americans devoted most of their time on improving their home lives, and in turn consumption on household increased. However, we are now seeing the effects of post covid era. Scotts Miracle gro did really well in 2020 and some into 2021 but now they are doing very poorly. Scotts anticipated record growth coming into 2022 based on how well they did during the pandemic. However, they are now doing really poorly and it all stems from their large increase in inventory capacity that is now not being sold because there is a large decrease in demand. I hope you learned something from this comment!

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