Strict lockdowns throughout major cities in China are causing problems for China's economy right now, and is predicted to have negative consequences in the future. Many businesses have been shut down for the past month, which has supply issues within these cities and outside of them. These lockdowns have no foreseeable end, which makes it hard to have clear predictions for its effects. However, the most common prediction that has been made is that the year end GDP will be lower than was initially predicted. Initially, the official government target for GDP growth was 5.5%, but the new median production from investment firms shows GDP growth at 4.5%. It is also predicted that investment and demand for goods, homes and durable goods will fall, because of people in lockdown having lower incomes, and overall uncertainty. I think it will be interesting to see how much longer these lockdowns last, and what the total effect on China's economy, and on other countries.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/investment-banks-slash-china-growth-outlook-one-puts-gdp-below-4percent.html
I think we can expect there to be significant supply chain shortages going forward as China's government is continuing with their "Zero-Covid" lockdowns in major cities. We all know China's economy will continue to be impacted, but it will be interesting to see how other economies will react.
ReplyDeleteOnce China opens back up I wonder if it will be a sharp increase like what happened after the United States lockdown? It seems like these no reason to assume that this isn't just a shock and blip on the radar and once its over China will recapture it's previous growth. But it will be interesting to see if there are differences in the recovery and to compare and contrast with the Unites states post-lockdown recovery.
ReplyDeleteYeah I am really curious to see how they bounce back in the future with this setback, especially since they don't know a time frame on how long this will last.. So many people are losing their jobs and I wonder if there will be protests.
ReplyDeleteIt's not surprising that China is predicted to have a lower GDP growth than previously expected due to the continuous lockdowns. I wonder when China will end the entire city lockdowns since it will continue to negatively impact their economy.
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