The JPMorgan economists become the first to disagree with Wall Street's forecast of 2021 Q1 showing positive economic growth and instead say that due to the recent surges in covid cases the first quarter of 2021 will be negative. They see the economic growth shrinking down by one percent in the first quarter and then rising to 4.5 in the second quarter and rising even more to 6.5 in the third quarter of 2021.This all being said JPMorgan economists still think that the year 2021 will be met with good expansion in the second and third quarters due to the hopeful development of a vaccine . Not only are they predicting that the positives of a vaccine will help the economy but more stimulus checks will help the economy to see increased growth in the second and third quarters as well. In the end, the JPMorgan economists believe that this growth we were experiencing in the months after the shutdown was the economy opening up but now the majority of the economy is opened and running and now we are facing restrictions that will slowly close the newly opened economy, Sadly the side effects will be decreased growth from q4 of 2020 to q1of 2021. Hopefully, the positives of a vaccine and more financial help from the government will help the economy grow and move past the restrictions after they are implemented in 2021.
Do you think these factors will help the economy to see growth?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/jp-morgan-says-first-quarter-gdp-will-decline-because-of-rising-covid-cases-and-restrictions.html
I think that the only way for the economy to return to full output is with a vaccine. I think that without a vaccine, businesses will be unable to operate as normal for a long period of time. The economy will not grow unless people feel comfortable leaving their homes which seems unlikely without a vaccine.
ReplyDeleteAs long as their is a WORKING vaccine, the economy should continue to grow.
ReplyDeleteI can agree with the analysts at JPMorgan. The spread of the virus will probably outpace the spread of the vaccine, at least for a little while. It is only getting colder, which will inevitably lead to a higher rate of spread. Also, many people are skeptical of the vaccine, and that may make it harder for the the general population to be vaccinated.
ReplyDeleteI think that if/when Biden gets more financial help passed that will help the economy grow. Hopefully around the same time or soon after the vaccine distribution will occur so we can continue to see better growth.
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