Sunday, October 6, 2019
Hiring rates are low, but a recession is not near
The job growth rate for this September was at a slower pace than the previous year. Even with experts projecting 145,000 jobs added, Economists predict that this is not a sign of an upcoming recession. With a potential upcoming recession, these signs of a slowly-growing economy can be alarming. However, experts are confident that the United States should not fear a recession given the country's current economic health. Are we safe to agree with these experts on the projection of a recession? With today's environment in the trade market, things may not be so safe. As international affairs are gaining more tension, our economy may see itself in a recession if trade restrictions continue to be implemented.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/fridays-jobs-report-should-show-hiring-is-slowing-but-not-that-a-recession-is-near.html
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I disagree with the conclusion of this article thoroughly. Basing economic outlook predictions on a single nominal, marginal statistic is a recipe for uninformed decision-making. I do believe that we are ankle-deep in what could be a tsunami of a recession, especially if we continue on with these trade wars and domestic industry protectionism. The economic ignorance of the current administration is equally if not more outrageously matched by the opposition, who seem to have no economic policies whatsoever (which might be for the best, leave the economics to the economists and the daydreaming to the daydreamers I suppose). The USA needs to take its head out of its rear and do some forward thinking. We could start with freeing up trade (all the way if it were up to me). At least use subsidies, not tariffs. We all just end up losing money.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the comment in the article where it states that if the trade war is ended, the economy will improve, but if the trade war continues and more tariffs are added, the economy will slow and fall into a recession. This is the first article I have read that mentions that the labor market is slowing down. I have heard the opposite, that there are more and more jobs being created and that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits is dropping substantially. It seems to me that the government should end this trade war for the best of the economy.
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