ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN DR. SKOSPLES' NATIONAL INCOME AND BUSINESS CYCLES COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Sunday, December 17, 2017
ESPN eliminating 150 production, tech jobs in latest cuts
ESPN eliminating 150 production, tech jobs in latest cuts
The sports network powerhouse ESPN is now cutting jobs. Viewing preferences have changed in the last decade leading for a multitude of ways to stream a sports news and games. Technology increases allowing for other networks entering the market which causes market share to also decrease. ESPN, as this article describes, has been losing viewers, or market share with the rising popularity of new networks that stream or have sports talk shows, like FOX sports, NFL Network, and MLB Network. As competition increases, ESPN's profit margin will decrease a less percentage of people watch them to see all their sporting wants.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/espn-eliminating-150-production-tech-jobs-latest-cuts-n825086
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Disney to buy Fox
On Thursday, it was announced that the Murdoch family would
be selling Fox to Disney. The move is expected to provide a significant boost
in Disney’s assets and provide about $2.5 billion in synergies. Fox will be
letting go of many of its entities that seem to have failed to keep up with
times as they have been in decline and remain with only a select few channels
and services. The deal is estimated to cost about $60 billion dollars and Fox
stands to gain 25% of Disney which is on
its way to becoming an even greater business giant. The deal said to have been
born out of a personal relationship between Disney’s Iger and Rupert Murdoch. A
merger of this kind is likely to make the new company a top contender along
with companies like Netflix and amazon prime which have escalated revenues
through original productions. In essence it appears that the fox model was not
working and it has now turned in favor of the likelihood of higher profits.The move is however not a done deal, it expected to undergo extensive regulatory scrutiny, due to its magnitude. There are also rumors that Murdoch who saw his take over of sky as unlikely due a need for parliamentary approval, is using this merger as an avenue to achieve this goal as it is likely to ameliorate the political contention of him taking it over personally due to his history as a news boss.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42329731
Are the Chinese becoming soft power imperialists?
At this point in time, it seems almost unquestionable that
there was some Russian interference in the 2016 election. Interestingly, it
seems as if China has burrowed a page out of the book that the Americans and
other states were using even before the Russians in 2016. China is historically
known as a people who did not wish to impose their ideals on others, in fact
they built the great wall to keep others out and themselves separate from other
nations.
Only this week an Australian senator was forced to resign
amid accusations that he was taking Chinese funds in exchange for him furthering
Chinese interests in Australia. Germany and New Zealand have also made similar
claims. Their presence in Africa is also rapidly expanding with 13 large infrastructural
projects in 13 different countries and several arms agreements going on at the moment.
This may seem trivial on the
surface, however when we consider China’s huge economic growth over the past
few years it starts to become more alarming. One wonders what their intentions
are and how they could affect the global community economically and otherwise.
Now that Trump is in power thanks in part to the Russians, certain things with
potentially significant ramifications remain up in the air. ”As the rising superpower, China has
an appetite to shape the rules of global engagement—rules created largely by
America and Western Europe and routinely invoked by them to justify their own
actions.”
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21732524-china-manipulating-decision-makers-western-democracies-best-defence
Inequality on the rise globally
A study conducted by French economist Thomas Piketty, has
revealed that even though countries all over the world have been developing at
similar rates since 1980, the gap between the rich and the poor has increased
very significantly. The study’s results were derived from the work of 100
researchers and with data from over 70 countries.
The study showed that within this time frame the 7 million
richest people in the world made the same amount of money as 3.8 billion people
or half the world’s population. The world economic forum reported that the
increase in this disparity has been a key factor in the heightened levels of disunity
we have witnessed in the last few years and has had big impacts on events like
the election of Donald Trump and the UK brexit. The research shows that this
trend is continuing largely due to national policies and that by 2050 "The
global top 1 percent income share could increase from nearly 20 percent today to
more than 24 percent" the report also said, " the global bottom 50
percent share could fall from 10 percent to less than 9 percent."
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/thomas-piketty-worldwide-inequality-report-shows-gap-between-rich-and-poor.html
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
The Trump economy is nothing special
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/11/16763314/trump-fixed-the-economy
According to the article, the economy has not changed much since Trump has become president. The growth is steady, but not extraordinary. It is definitely a positive progression, but nothing interesting has happened. Other regions such as Europe is experiencing a larger GDP growth. Japan is growing slower than the US, but they are growing beyond the expected rate.
It seems the economy is just flowing as it naturally should be. The change in government is not greatly affecting the economy, hence Trump cannot really take credit for the economy going the steady, right way. What citizens could do at this period is to maintain the confidence and do what they normally do in economic terms. A similar topic was discussed in the economic conference as well, and if the growth is happening, the US economy will do well.
Monday, December 11, 2017
Economy is doing well, and tax cuts won’t
help
Growth in the four
quarters of 2017 now looks likely to come in at 2.3 percent, marginally faster than the consensus just
before the president’s election. Consensus expectations for 2018 are only marginally greater today
than they were before the election. So, there has been no substantial updraft
in the economy. In fact, the United States has trailed the global economy in
the sense that other countries, notably in Europe, have seen greater upward
forecast revisions.
The U.S. stock market
has been very strong, rising by close to 25 percent since the election,
which is far more than most observers expected a year ago. This appears to be
heavily driven by increases in corporate profits. But performance is running
behind that of Japan and Germany, belying the idea that the market is being
driven by U.S.-specific policy factors.
The idea that U.S.
fundamentals have importantly improved since the election is further called
into question by the observation that the dollar has declined by 8 percent
against the yen and 7 percent against the euro. If something fundamental had
happened to improve the U.S. business environment, we would have seen capital
inflows and an appreciating currency.
The growth that the
United States has seen in 2017 is sustainable over the medium term. This seems
unlikely, from both supply- and demand-side perspectives. From the supply side,
it is hard to imagine that, with 4.1 percent unemployment, the economy can continue creating
anything like 200,000 jobs a month, given that normal growth in the labor force
is about 60,000 people. From the demand side, this year’s growth was driven in
significant part by a more than $6 trillion increase
in household wealth from the stock market rally. Even if the market holds its
level, similar wealth increments cannot be expected on a regular basis in the
future.
Even if growth can somehow be maintained or
accelerated, it is foundational for a healthy economy that its benefits be
widely shared. Unfortunately, the tendency has been very different in the
United States. Inequality has steadily increased, and much of the growth that
has taken place has been captured by a small share of the population. This reflects
both increased dispersions in pre-tax income and the inadequate progressivity
of the tax and transfer system. The
tax-cut legislation now in conference committee on Capitol Hill exacerbates
every important problem it claims to address, most importantly by leaving the
federal government with an entirely inadequate revenue base. The tax-cut
legislation now under consideration would leave the federal government with a
revenue basis of 17 percent of GDP, a difference that works out to $1 trillion
a year within the budget window. This will further starve already inadequate
levels of public investment in infrastructure, human capital and science. It
will likely mean further cuts in safety-net programs and cause more people to
fall behind. And because it will also mean higher deficits and capital costs,
it will likely crowd out as much private investment as it stimulates.
Thursday, December 7, 2017
Trade between African countries may become freer and grow
All 55 of African countries are planning to form a free
trade area, to be called a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). This would allow
them to trade without charging tariffs (taxes) on imports of each other’s
goods.
Their deadline if the end of this year is ambitious
considering that they have only begun talking about this seriously two years
ago. But it looks like most if not all African leaders may be ready to sign the
deal by March next year, which will not be that late. But a total of at least
fifteen African countries must actually ratify the trade agreement in order for
it to go into effect.
African countries still tend to trade more with European
countries than with each other. More than 80% of African countries traded
exports go to countries located outside Africa. Most of these exports are not
manufacturing or services but agriculture products like crops, oil and precious
metals. This does not help Africa develop.
So finally these countries are trying to really band
together to trade with one another and raise the amount of this intra-Africa
trade. Currently around half of the trade that African countries do with one
another is in manufactured goods. Understandably, the idea is to increase the
share on trade in these goods. This is how countries can grow faster and better
and create more jobs. They get better prices for traded exports that are
manufactured than agriculture crops.
Another motive is to create a regional block of countries
that can then have more power in dealing with other regions or large economies
on trade negotiations. But it will be the non tariff barriers—like different
rules and standards across countries for certain goods such as food products--
that must be removed to really get trade going between these countries and grow
their economies. And African countries will miss the revenues that come from
collecting trade taxes. Somehow they will have to make up this gap in budget
revenue for fiscal policy spending.
https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21732154-they-have-long-traded-world-now-they-want-trade-each
Wednesday, December 6, 2017
Venezuela’s economy looks to oil for salvation and a new currency
Venezuela’s economy has been suffering for the past several
years. While oil has always been a major export for Venezuela, oil now makes up
as much as 96% of total exports, according to a recent article in The
Economist. This is because it
is so difficult for other businesses to function in this country due to
government policies and the chaotic nature of the economy and society under
Nicolas Maduro.
Although oil makes up the vast majority of total exports,
even oil exports have fallen most recently. This is because oil production fell
by one hundred thirty thousand barrels a day over the September to October
period. With large supplies of oil provided to China and Russia as a form of
payment of interest on loans made by these countries to the Venezuelan state,
there is little left over to sell as exports. Another negative impact on oil
exports is caused by the drop in the global oil price over the past several
years, although it is not as low as it was in 2015, a record low. Because
Venezuela is $1.5bn behind on making its payments on loans, the situation
does not look it will improve any time soon and it could in fact get worse.
This is a big deal for Venezuela
because it is one of the world’s largest oil exporters and reportedly has the
largest proven oil reserves in the world. Oil is so important to the economy of
Venezuela that its president even resorted to issuing a new digital currency,
called the petro, backed by the country’s oil reserves, as well as gas, gold
and diamonds.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/enter-the-petro-venezuela-to-launch-oil-backed-cryptocurrency-idUSKBN1DX0SQ
Monday, December 4, 2017
CVS and Aetna merge, what does it mean for the Pharmaceutical Industry?
CVS and Aetna merged today and it had many people thinking about what this means for the future of the industry. CVS and Aetna have very different business models, with Aetna being an health insurance provider, and CVS being a pharmaceutical/convenience store, this could mean a whole new business model for the company. It also makes you think about why take this large risk when CVS specifically is largely profitable? My answer is Amazon is rumored to get into the pharmaceutical business and now CVS needs a way to differentiate themselves in the market. What other changes do you think will come of this merger, in the industry, or at CVS itself?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-cvs-aetna-gamble-a-health-care-giant-not-built-around-doctors-1512411933
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-cvs-aetna-gamble-a-health-care-giant-not-built-around-doctors-1512411933
McKinsey & Co. senior exec Thomas Barkin named new head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
With a new head of a regional FED his background will come to the forefront of news. With his possible connection to bribery in South Africa. Although there are just references to his name, a couple of big name banks have refused to do business with him and his bank.
Another interesting point is that he does not have his higher education degree in economics. He has his degree in business and law. Will this have an effect on his work at the FED. Some believe having a degree in economics should be a prerequisite to having a high position a the FED. What do you think?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/mckinsey-co-senior-exec-thomas-barkin-named-new-head-of-the-federal-reserve-bank-of-richmond.html
Bitcoin Bubble?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cryptocurrency-market-cracks-300-billion-060022374.html?utm_content=buffera3451&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=yahoofinance
There has been much talk recently about the Bitcoin Movement, and further cryptocurrency as a whole. Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 1000% in the past year, breaking norms that we typically see in the stock market. The difference here is, bitcoin is not the same as a typical stock. As the stock market is centered around banks, businesses, and federal regulations, the future of bitcoin turns to the people who mine (obtain it) it and the people who buy and sell it day in and day out. A popular term that is used is that bitcoin is in a 'bubble'. We hear this term spoken about a lot revolving around the stock market. Again as mentioned early, the bitcoin market does not behave anything like a typical stock market, so why would we think that bitcoin is in a bubble? This is because of the rapid growth it has seen. If we look at the past year, we can see that everytime the 'bubble' was said to have been popped, it was followed by more rapid growth shortly after. Only time will tell.
There has been much talk recently about the Bitcoin Movement, and further cryptocurrency as a whole. Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 1000% in the past year, breaking norms that we typically see in the stock market. The difference here is, bitcoin is not the same as a typical stock. As the stock market is centered around banks, businesses, and federal regulations, the future of bitcoin turns to the people who mine (obtain it) it and the people who buy and sell it day in and day out. A popular term that is used is that bitcoin is in a 'bubble'. We hear this term spoken about a lot revolving around the stock market. Again as mentioned early, the bitcoin market does not behave anything like a typical stock market, so why would we think that bitcoin is in a bubble? This is because of the rapid growth it has seen. If we look at the past year, we can see that everytime the 'bubble' was said to have been popped, it was followed by more rapid growth shortly after. Only time will tell.
US jobless claims post second weekly decline
Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for the second straight week as the labor market conditions tightened. Last week was the 143rd consecutive week that claims were totaled under the 300,000 threshold, demonstrating the strong labor market. However, this lower rate in claims is due in part to the fact that claims-taking procedures in the Caribbean have been disrupted after the destruction of infrastructure following Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Despite this disruption, the labor market is operating at near full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, a seventeen year low. While most would agree that a low unemployment rate is a good thing, there are potential problems with it as low as it currently is. 2017 saw 1.5 million jobs added to the employment sector. While it seems illogical that a low unemployment rate could cause problems, the main factor that comes into question is productivity. Eventually, the labor market will reach a point where each job added does not create enough productivity to cover its cost, making any additional jobs after inefficient. This allows the output gap to grow. While a perfect economy could operate at full capacity with no output gap, the United States' rises and falls as the economy does. When there is a positive output gap, the market is overusing resources and becoming inefficient, and this occurs when the unemployment rate is low. Overall, however, it is beneficial and promising that the United States is operating in near full employment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-25-2017.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-25-2017.html
American Airlines Resolves Problem That Could Have Canceled Thousands of Flights
American Airlines failed to schedule enough pilots for flights during the holiday season. It was said that about 15,000 flights would be affected by the error. American Airlines could have lost tons of money and it could have affected the way people viewed the company. If given the option, people would probably choose to fly a different airline. Currently American Airlines stock is down 2.95%, but there is no proof that this was the cause. It would be beneficial for American Airlines to invest in a better system so that something like this doesn't happen again because they might not be so fortunate the next time.
American Airlines failed to schedule enough pilots for flights during the holiday season. It was said that about 15,000 flights would be affected by the error. American Airlines could have lost tons of money and it could have affected the way people viewed the company. If given the option, people would probably choose to fly a different airline. Currently American Airlines stock is down 2.95%, but there is no proof that this was the cause. It would be beneficial for American Airlines to invest in a better system so that something like this doesn't happen again because they might not be so fortunate the next time.
Sunday, December 3, 2017
The U.S. is exporting obesity
American fast-food culture is making the whole world unhealthier
Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades. And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the US is making the problem worse. As President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic. Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades. And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the United States is making the problem worse.
It is perhaps fantasy to expect the current U.S. administration to consider any kind of anti-obesity strategy while it is still busy dismantling Obama-era policies. But that is all the more reason why countries entering new trade agreements with the U.S. (for example, the post-Brexit U.K., or post-NAFTA Canada) must be wary of any provisions that tie their hands in the war against obesity.
Bitcoin Futures
According to CNBC, the world's largest futures exchange, the CME, notified the market that it had completed self certification with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch its bitcoin futures contract that will become active on December 18. As a result of this news, bitcoin's price surged because this could potentially be a key part of bitcoin becoming the digital currency of the future. Mainly because it legitimizes bitcoin as an asset class. Bitcoin is currently trading at about 11,495.68 us dollars during the writing of this post.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/cme-says-its-launching-bitcoin-futures-on-dec-18.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-surges-through-11000-less-than-24-hours-after-topping-10000.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/cme-says-its-launching-bitcoin-futures-on-dec-18.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-surges-through-11000-less-than-24-hours-after-topping-10000.html
Don’t expect strong U.S. hiring to keep up in 2018
Here’s the good news. Tens of thousands of Americans are finding jobs every month. The bad news? A long streak of explosive hiring and job growth has to come to an end soon. It won’t happen right away, though. The U.S. likely added almost 200,000 new jobs in November, according to the latest forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. How good is that? That’s roughly how many jobs the economy had added each month since 2010, a stretch that has resulted in 17.2 million new positions. The long boom in hiring is reflected in the soaring optimism of Americans. With unemployment at a 17-year low, consumer confidence has rocketed to a 17-year high. The brighter outlook is also evident in a surging stock market that keeps setting record highs. Good things can’t go on forever, however. The unemployment rate has fallen so low, at 4.1%, that companies are running out of people to hire even though demand for their goods and services keep rising. Most economists predict hiring will slow to 150,000 a month or less by the end of 2018. The last time job creation was that slow was in the early stages of the current recover that began in mid-2009. Companies have sought to lure workers, including retired baby boomers, with better fringe benefits, but the shortage is expected to get worse. And that could create a cap of sorts on how fast the economy can grow no matter what Washington does to try to help.“When you have such a tight labor market, that is going to crimp the economy,” said senior economist Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets. “If we see fewer jobs created it won’t be because of slower demand. There’s just not enough workers.”The Trump White House and Republican-led Congress aim to keep the good times rolling with a massive reduction in corporate and personal income taxes. The tax bill could pass as early as this week. Supporters insist lower corporate taxes will boost investment, keep American companies from moving overseas and even lure foreign firms to set up shop in the U.S. Even in the best-case scenario, however, there’s no short-term fix for the growing shortage of labor, especially in an economy that requires workers with higher skills. The labor shortage might have one silver lining, though. After years of holding back, companies are investing more in technology and other equipment in an alternative approach that could allow them to boost production at current staffing levels.“No doubt this is already happening,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Advisors. “That is a trend that is going to continue.”Eventually the investment could make the companies more productive, allow them to pay workers more and drive the U.S. economy to greater heights. The last time the U.S. has grown 3% a year was in 2005. But that day is still well into the future.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-expect-strong-us-hiring-to-keep-up-in-2018-2017-12-02
Venezuela to launch its own cryptocurrency, the "Petro"
For almost two years , Venezuela has been facing an
economic crisis that seems to be getting worse and worse. The desperation it has
caused ordinary citizens, is chief among a variety factors that led to several
periods of large scale and often violent protests in the country. The Bolivar,
(Venezuelan currency) has depreciated about 57% against the dollar in the last
month alone. Consequently the national monthly minimum wage has fallen to about
$4.30, leaving many struggling for food and other basic necessities.
Bitcoin is illegal in Venezuela, however due to increasing
hyperinflation it has become a common means to survival for those who are able
to navigate it, allowing the opportunity to buy dollars or goods online. Due to
its illegality the police have been making extra efforts to enforce laws
against bitcoin as its usage increases in the country.
Interestingly on
December 3 President Nicolas Maduro announced that in response to sanctions
imposed by the Trump administration, his regime would be launching the “Petro”
Venezuela’s very own cryptocurrency which would be backed by oil, gold, gas and
diamond reserves. He stated “I have
thoroughly studied this issue, and I want to announce that Venezuela is going
to roll out a new cryptocurrency system based on its oil reserves. Venezuela
will create a cryptocurrency —a petrocurrency, the Petro. He added “This will
allow us to reach new means of international credit for the country’s economic
and social development.” The response from his base was loud cheers, applause
and claims that the 21st century had arrived in Venezuela.
His critics however are not so optimistic, raising concerns
about how a crypto currency could be backed by oil reserves if they could not
be transferred? Many voicing concern over how a cryptocurrency could be successful
despite the country being in default on its loans, in hyperinflation and its
oil industry being bankrupt. Furthermore these sanctions issued by the United
States and the European Union refusing their citizens and firms from trading
with entities associated with the regime are to some extent responsible for the
crisis. How then can the Maduro regime expect to convince foreign investors to
accept the use of the Petro in their business dealings, if they are to ever get
as far as having business dealings at all?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/03/venezuela-is-launching-a-cryptocurrency-backed-by-oil-gas-gold-and-diamonds.html
Nobel winner says bitcoin 'ought to be outlawed'
A lot of Nobel Prize winners have been threatening bitcoin or saying that it's a something that should be terminated.
Joseph Stiglitz thinks that bitcoin should be outlawed because it has no societal use or function. Robert Shiller explained that people like bitcoin because the feeling of anti regulation or anti government. It makes the people feel lawless. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon thinks that bitcoin will fade, like a trend.
The point these economists are making, is that bitcoin is extremely unreliable. It has hit a high of selling at 11,000, but it has also before dropped to 2,000. The only reason why Bitcoins are now selling at 11,000 is because big name investors and hedge funds have begin to take an interest and started to invest.
Bitcoin will only survive if big name companies start gaining massive interest and show Bitcoin as a way to diversify their portfolios. If big name companies loose interest fast, then Bitcoin will slowly die the more people that pull away from it. Also unless Bitcoin finds a way to make it easier to spend or unless more places start offering to take it as a way of trade.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/01/investing/bitcoin-criticism-outlawed/index.html?iid=SF_River
Joseph Stiglitz thinks that bitcoin should be outlawed because it has no societal use or function. Robert Shiller explained that people like bitcoin because the feeling of anti regulation or anti government. It makes the people feel lawless. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon thinks that bitcoin will fade, like a trend.
The point these economists are making, is that bitcoin is extremely unreliable. It has hit a high of selling at 11,000, but it has also before dropped to 2,000. The only reason why Bitcoins are now selling at 11,000 is because big name investors and hedge funds have begin to take an interest and started to invest.
Bitcoin will only survive if big name companies start gaining massive interest and show Bitcoin as a way to diversify their portfolios. If big name companies loose interest fast, then Bitcoin will slowly die the more people that pull away from it. Also unless Bitcoin finds a way to make it easier to spend or unless more places start offering to take it as a way of trade.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/01/investing/bitcoin-criticism-outlawed/index.html?iid=SF_River
Ron Paul: 'Inflation is all over the place' and it's creating a dangerous distortion in stock market
Former Republican congressman Ron Paul says that inflation is high on his lists of concerns. The Federal Reserve's recent observation is that prices are really low but Paul believes that inflation is a dangerous distortion that could spark a pullback as deep at 50 percent. He says that Bonds are representing inflation and that the super high stock prices represent inflation. These companies are super over valued and wont generate returns like stock holders expect and their stock prices continue to rise. Eventually stock holders are going to realize this and withdrawal their investments and once people start doing this it will spark even more people to pull their money out and the market will fall drastically.
Paul also points to the meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, could also signal that there is more inflation than people realize. He also points to the fact that in the 1920's the CPI wasn't going up so no one was worried but the stock market went up a lot until it eventually crashed. The Fed currently isn't worried because the CPI isn't rising and they are keeping interest rates low. He believes there is a huge bubble but can't pin point what or when it will actually burst. Its interesting to see that people are noticing some things that are potentially wrong and are ignoring it so they can soak up the last remains of this economic growth. These potential gray rhinos could be catastrophic and many people will be blindsided by these effects.
Paul also points to the meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, could also signal that there is more inflation than people realize. He also points to the fact that in the 1920's the CPI wasn't going up so no one was worried but the stock market went up a lot until it eventually crashed. The Fed currently isn't worried because the CPI isn't rising and they are keeping interest rates low. He believes there is a huge bubble but can't pin point what or when it will actually burst. Its interesting to see that people are noticing some things that are potentially wrong and are ignoring it so they can soak up the last remains of this economic growth. These potential gray rhinos could be catastrophic and many people will be blindsided by these effects.
Puerto Rico has suffered a lot of damage from the recent hurricanes of 2017. They have been without power, their economy has taken a hit and there are thousands of abandoned dogs roaming the streets. As the economic crisis got worse many people could not afford to care for their dogs. The total amount of strays is still unknown but there was a documentary in 2010 about the problem that was called “100,000” for a reason. Puerto Rican culture does not neuter dogs so these strays dogs continue to breed and make the problem worse. One woman rescued over 1,100 abandoned animals in Puerto Rico last year. There is a stretch of sand and jungle in Puerto Rico called dead dog beach where people go and dump their dogs. I think there needs to be a requirement to get dogs neuter and have fewer restrictions on veterinary licenses in order to help remedy the situation. I know as humans it’s easy to only care about ourselves but I feel no living entity to should have to suffer and the dogs in Puerto Rico are definitely suffering.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/20/news/economy/puerto-rico-crisis-stray-dogs/index.html
The end of labor growth
In November, the American economy supplemented 200,000 fresh jobs. This amount of jobs have been added consistently after 2010. As a result, the total number of jobs added to the economy reaches 17.2 million new jobs. Additionally, consumer confidence escalated levels that have not been reached in 17 years. Along the same lines, the stock market keeps ascending to record high levels.
Although the demand for goods and services keeps climbing, companies are desperate to find people to hire. The consistent energy of the economy seems to be pushing itself to its limits. Economists are not expecting jobs creations to increase in 2018, not because companies are not hiring workers, but because there will not be people to take these jobs. This is as worst as it can get. The economist Jennifer Lee states, "If we see fewer jobs created it won't be because of slower demand. There's just not enough workers." In other words, the economy is making progress and does not show any indications of slowing down.
US President’s Mental Health in Question
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/psychiatrists-warn-trump-becoming-more-mentally-unstable.html
Psychiatrists all over the United States are banding together to request a mental health assessment on president Trump. They believe stresses such as a decrease in popularity, the tension with North Korea, and his campaigns contact with Russia are all causes of his recent impulsive behavior. He has been acting out in anger, and using racial and sexist slurs in his responses lately.
They also stated that institutionalization is a common response to these behaviors.
If these psychiatrists are correct in their assumptions, this could greatly affect the confidence of consumers and investors. If we were to abruptly lose a leader, that would facilitate great insecurity of the future for consumers. And when things are unsure in an adverse way, people tend to tighten their spending. Could this lead to even lower inflation, or even deflation ?
Economy Has Room to Grow. Here's Why.
The evidence that the U.S. economy has been accelerating is thinner than the headlines shout. But with the rest of the world economy improving and a possible tax-cut jolt coming soon, the good news is there is room for a pickup in growth.
In the years since the financial crisis, the U.S. economy has been in a deep rut: Growth averaged just 2.1% a year from the end of the recession to the first quarter of this year, making it the most tepid expansion on record. But lately GDP has perked up, growing at a 3.1% rate in the second quarter and 3.3% in the third. Put that together with steady hiring and an ebullient stock market, the economy looks very strong.
But much of the strength in GDP over the past two quarters wasn’t actually the result of stronger domestic demand. Instead, the growth was driven by a narrowing of the trade deficit and an increase in inventories, both of which will likely prove temporary. Absent trade and inventory swings, demand grew at an average rate of 2.4% over the past two quarters, matching the average pace over the previous four quarters.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economy-has-room-to-grow-heres-why-1512309600
Venezuela unveils virtual currency amid economic crisis
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42217798
Nicholas Maduro, the Venezuelan President, announced that Petro, the new cryptocurrency, will be created.
Venezuela has been pressurized economically by the US and the EU. Their economy is also staggering severely, due to reducing oil prices. They owe a debt of around $140 billion to foreign creditors as well. The Bolivar (Venezuelan currency) value is dropping on top of the two bad news. President Maduro's attempt is to ease the economic crisis his country is facing at the moment.
However, if Petro is relying on its country's remaining resources, which, in my opinion, is not that abundant, will not influence the Venezuelan economy greatly. It just seems to be a blunt statement made out of desperation. Simultaneously, bitcoin value has gone up. Perhaps the Venezuelan President got a great idea by finding out that bitcoin is the new real deal. Its greatest advantage is that it does not follow the rules of the standard currencies, which always change in value due to economic situations and relations between countries. Petro value, according to President Maduro, will be based on oil, diamond, and gold reserves that Venezuela owns. How will he be able to create a mechanism to make Petro valuable, when Venezuela cannot get a hold of that much on its own? If he is serious about the plan, there has to be a very well-thought method to make Petro a precious currency.
I am curious of how President Maduro is going to pull out the creation of a new cryptocurrency. As much as it sounds preposterous when Venezuela is in a pickle, I am interested to see if the new virtual money will save the country.
Nicholas Maduro, the Venezuelan President, announced that Petro, the new cryptocurrency, will be created.
Venezuela has been pressurized economically by the US and the EU. Their economy is also staggering severely, due to reducing oil prices. They owe a debt of around $140 billion to foreign creditors as well. The Bolivar (Venezuelan currency) value is dropping on top of the two bad news. President Maduro's attempt is to ease the economic crisis his country is facing at the moment.
However, if Petro is relying on its country's remaining resources, which, in my opinion, is not that abundant, will not influence the Venezuelan economy greatly. It just seems to be a blunt statement made out of desperation. Simultaneously, bitcoin value has gone up. Perhaps the Venezuelan President got a great idea by finding out that bitcoin is the new real deal. Its greatest advantage is that it does not follow the rules of the standard currencies, which always change in value due to economic situations and relations between countries. Petro value, according to President Maduro, will be based on oil, diamond, and gold reserves that Venezuela owns. How will he be able to create a mechanism to make Petro valuable, when Venezuela cannot get a hold of that much on its own? If he is serious about the plan, there has to be a very well-thought method to make Petro a precious currency.
I am curious of how President Maduro is going to pull out the creation of a new cryptocurrency. As much as it sounds preposterous when Venezuela is in a pickle, I am interested to see if the new virtual money will save the country.
American Airlines’ New Rule on Smart Bags: Battery Must Be Removable
American
Airlines aid that they will not allow passengers to check or bring a smart
luggage unless they remove the batteries that fuel the high-tech features. The
rules will take effect on January 2018. Ross Feinsteinm Spokesman for the
airline stated, “We’ve looked at the prevalence of these bags as
they most likely are going to be a hot item, no pun intended, this holiday
season,” he said. “We have nothing against a smart bag, we understand customers
like them,” but the airline also has to make sure they are safe to transport”
Federal Aviation Administration already ban
passengers from carrying lithium batteries in their checked bags to avoid any
smoke or fire in the cargo area and for that reason, American Airlines will
only allow smart luggage onboard if the battery can be disconnected.
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/american-airlines-smart-luggage-ban
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