The Economist investigates how the "advance of deep learning and other artificial intelligence" could be affecting the job market by replacing not only low wage, manual labor jobs, but also some of those in medicine. The example is provided about Enlitic, a start up applying deep learning to medicine, that can be used to examine and analyze x-rays, and CT scans to "expense expert radiology advice". They say one of the biggest factors determining the risk of a job is whether or not the activities performed are routine.
There is a chart on the site indicating the probability of certain jobs and the likelihood of them being technologically replaced. Of which, the highest are telemarketers (99%), technical writers (89%), Real-estate agents (86%), Commercial pilots (55%), and even economists at 44%! The jobs that seem to be least at risk are athletic trainers, chemical engineers, dentists and recreational therapists.
What does this mean for the job market?
It has been analyzed that "rather than destroying jobs, automation redefines them, and in ways that reduce costs and boost demand... Computers thus reallocate rather than displace jobs, requiring workers to learn new skills." This means more that new jobs are likely to be created that are unpredictable to us now, that require different training, education and forms of human capital than are already in use. Although the rise of technology may begin to eliminate more of the "Pizza Hut clerk" as they have in Japan, this will require a higher skilled work force, and hopefully in the long run lead to greater productivity of human capital, and higher standards of living.
It was also a part of The Economist snapchat news story today (Sat, Oct 8)
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety
I think it is interesting to note how the technological changes will effect current jobs. For example the article notes that self driving cars may exterminate professions such as taxi drivers, but the article focuses on how this innovation will also lead to new different jobs. Instead of taxi drivers, there might be a need for people to remotely operate the vehicles. In essence, my impression of the article is that with the jobs being exterminated due to innovation, new different jobs will replace them.
ReplyDeleteI think this is an interesting article. People have been saying for a while that technology will end up taking over and leave us with no jobs. So I liked how they noted that yes, it is possible that innovations will result in some people losing their jobs, but it could also mean new jobs will become available. I feel like this could affect each generation differently as well. It is going to be easier for younger generations to adapt to the new technological advances and be prepared for new types of jobs that may arise from these advances. However, on the other hand, older generations may have a hard time accepting the changes and could find it very difficult to find a new job if they happen to lose one due to new technology.
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ReplyDeleteI agree with Taylor that the affect of technological changes can bring different affects on different generation. It is easier for younger generation to learn and adapt new technologies, job requirements after the changes is more likely to be sill-based, but I think it is natural since everything developing to be more advanced.
ReplyDeleteI agree with all of the previous comments. It's interesting to think about how much technology and the skill requirements for jobs have already changed over time. It will be interesting to see how they develop over the years to come. Although some jobs will be eliminated due to these advancements, it's comforting to know that new jobs will still be created that require human workers.
ReplyDeleteI agree with all the assertions made up top. I think something Thais widely overlooked is just as much technology takes away jobs, it also create jobs. One of the things we must look at is the fields technology is taking jobs from— usually it's in the field of manual labor. But even though it takes away that job it creates another, the operation of the machine has to be conducted or monitored by someone.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see the effect of higher-needed skill on the college premium. It will most likely decrease as more and more people return to school for higher education in search of a job.
ReplyDeleteKeeping the comments above in mind, I agree that technology could replace many job, but that there would still be plenty of new jobs created. I wonder how many though, or if it would equal the number of jobs that were lost. Will the number of jobs go down, up, or stay the same if this change happens?
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