Since Oscar Nominations just came out recently, there seems to be a big change in movie industry during these years and also congratulations to Leonardo DiCaprio.
"IN 1983 William Goldman, a screenwriter, coined the famous saying that in Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything” when it comes to predicting which films will succeed at the box office. To find out how true that remains, we have analysed the performance of more than 2,000 films with a budget of more than $10 m, released in America and Canada since 1995, to see which factors help make a movie a hit."
The article mentioned several factors that explained "about 60% of the variation in box-office revenues. Adding an estimate of marketing costs increases our model’s accuracy by another 20 percentage points. That leaves about one-fifth down to factors not explained by the model. “John Carter”, a $275m science-fiction extravaganza that was one of the biggest turkeys in Hollywood history, should have earned $235m according to our model. It made just $73m when it was released in 2012. Clearly, no one yet knows everything."
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21693594-how-make-hit-film-silver-screen-playbook
The creation of a model to determine what makes a hit movie is certainly interesting. Many movies go through pre-screenings now to see how viewers react. Some movies even try multiple endings to see which one gets the greatest reaction out of its viewers. I wonder if this model will develop further in the future, or if it really is impossible to determine what makes a hit movie through the use of a model.
ReplyDeleteI think it is impossible to predict which movies will be considered a hit or not. As times change, peoples opinions change and it is tough to narrow down on what people want. It is hard to appeal to a large majority and there will always be a group of people who disagree. Increased marketing costs will boost awareness and may potentially boost ratings but it is not certain. The idea of creating a model is cool but does not seem very practical.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of a model to predict the likeliness of a movie becoming a hit or not is very fascinating. While times and technology change, newer movies will come out. However, I don't think that is enough to change peoples opinions because I feel like there have always been different views on movies ever since their existence. It'll be interesting to see if this model can become more versatile and accurate.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of a model to predict the likeliness of a movie becoming a hit or not is very fascinating. While times and technology change, newer movies will come out. However, I don't think that is enough to change peoples opinions because I feel like there have always been different views on movies ever since their existence. It'll be interesting to see if this model can become more versatile and accurate.
ReplyDeletePeople are pretty unpredictable. Did the article ask about what factors we considered in the article? What about the psychological aspects of this model.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see what movies take a huge loss or movies that make a ton of money. I know for example, Scream, was a very small budgeted scary movie film and it made a lot of money over the years and continues to do so come Halloween with costumes and everything. So I feel like it is just a guess when it comes to making some movies, but hey if the model can work for the majority of movies then why not try to follow it!
ReplyDeleteIn one of the graphs from the article it shows the films budget and the revenue made. Its very interesting because as a film's budget gets larger it seems like the return is a little more questionable. The grouping of the data becomes spread out. I would think that the more money a company puts into a film the better the outcome would be but this is clearly not the case.
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