Sunday, October 31, 2010

Now isnt the right time to cut the budget deficit

In this article, Christina Romer, a UC berkley economics professor and one of president Obama's advisor on the economy argues that even though the Budget deficit in the US has to be reduced, doing it now is not a good idea . She argues that austerity needs to set in but doing it now would make the current situation worse than what it already is. She says that macro economics has taught us that tax cuts and spending increases stimulate demand and raises output and employment. While Tax increases and spending cuts have the completely opposite effect. Since both the employment rate and demand are substantially low at this point, it doesn't make sense to start cutting the deficit right now , because this is going to lead us into more unemployment and less demand, something we definitely don't need more of. She also mentions that instituting austerity measures right now is going to result in a double dip recession, something that happened in 1937 when we tried to incorporate austerity in a recession. This theory is based on the recent reports by the IMF and the World Economic outlook which confirm that fiscal consolidation reduces growth substantially. This can be further verified by the failed attempts of economies such as Ireland, Spain and Greece who tried to stimulate the economy by being more frugal and instead they had to contend with more unemployment and less growth. SO cutting the budget deficit should definitely be on the watch list but doing it now would be short sighted and create more problems.

1 comment:

  1. It's going to be very interesting to see how this issue materializes in the next two years leading up to the 2012 election, and especially important after the 2012 election. The Obama Administration gets hammered enough for 'raising' taxes without actually raising taxes, so... an actual increase in income tax would be extremely dangerous. It would also be interesting to see how a Republican candidate would handle the deficit issue... would a Republican raise taxes for austerity's sake? The last time I can think of a Republican doing this is 1992, and HW Bush arguably lost the election because of it.

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