Tariffs to Spike Inflation

     As President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new round of tariffs, the economic landscape is bracing for significant shifts. A recent report from Goldman Sachs outlines the potential repercussions of these tariffs, forecasting an alarming combination of rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and stagnant economic growth. The implications of these tariffs are profound, not just for the U.S. economy but for global markets as well.

     Goldman Sachs anticipates that tariff rates could increase by as much as 15 percentage points, a scenario that now appears more likely as the decision day approaches. This increase, although expected to be moderated by eventual product and country exclusions, signals a tough road ahead for consumers and businesses alike. A projected inflation rate of 3.5% by 2025, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, could erode purchasing power and squeeze household budgets.

     The forecasted economic growth of just 0.2% in the first quarter and a meager 1% for the full year is troubling. Such low growth rates, combined with an expected unemployment rate of 4.5%, paint a picture of an economy struggling to gain momentum. The increased likelihood of a recession—now pegged at 35%—raises concerns reminiscent of the stagflation experienced in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when high inflation coexisted with stagnant economic growth.

     Goldman's insights indicate that this time, the Federal Reserve may take a different approach. While past economic crises have led to aggressive interest rate hikes, Goldman now forecasts three rate cuts within 2025. This shift suggests that the Fed is prepared to prioritize economic support over inflation containment. However, the effectiveness of such rate cuts in combating inflation without further destabilizing the economy remains uncertain.

     The potential for an across-the-board tariff increase of 20% on U.S. trading partners would exacerbate these challenges, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses, reduced international trade, and a further slowdown in economic growth. The ripple effects of these tariffs could extend beyond U.S. borders, affecting global supply chains and economic stability worldwide.

     In summary, as decision day approaches, the proposed tariffs represent more than just a trade policy shift; they embody a critical juncture for the U.S. economy. The interplay of rising inflation, stagnant growth, and potential recessionary pressures could create a challenging environment for policymakers and consumers alike. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how these economic forecasts play out and what measures will be taken to mitigate their impact. 

Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tariffs-to-spike-inflation-stunt-growth-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html

Trump Administration Slashes Planned Parenthood Funding — What It Means for Reproductive Health

On March 31, 2025, the Trump administration announced a sweeping cut to federal funding for Planned Parenthood, eliminating tens of millions of dollars in grants to affiliates that offer abortion referrals. While these funds were never used for abortion services due to existing federal law (the Hyde Amendment), the administration claims the cuts are part of an effort to ensure that taxpayer dollars don’t indirectly support organizations involved in abortion access.

This move marks a major shift in reproductive health policy and escalates a long-standing political fight. For many Americans, especially low-income individuals and marginalized communities, Planned Parenthood is a lifeline, offering not just reproductive services, but cancer screenings, birth control, STI testing, prenatal care, and general health checkups.

Planned Parenthood officials warned that the funding cuts could force clinic closures and staff reductions, leading to reduced access in areas where alternative providers are few or nonexistent. Public health advocates are particularly concerned about rural regions and communities of color, where reproductive health care is already under strain.

While the administration frames this as a move to protect “the sanctity of life,” critics view it as a politically motivated attack on comprehensive healthcare. With election season heating up, the debate over funding reproductive health services is once again center stage, and the people most affected are often those with the fewest resources.

As legal battles and policy fights continue, one thing is clear: the consequences of this decision will ripple far beyond Planned Parenthood, shaping access to care for millions across the country.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/31/trump-admin-cuts-tens-of-millions-from-planned-parenthood-00261763

Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected

    The core PCE price index measured at 2.8% for the past 12 months at the end of February. The core PCE price index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Consumer spending also was slightly below projections, sitting at a growth of 0.4%, whereas projections were calling for 0.5%. The immediate cause for the aggravated inflation rate not going back down to the Fed's goal of 2% seems to be tariff related. The Fed's timeline for cutting interest rates seems to have been slowed down by this lingering inflation. The article makes a point that tariffs are normally considered, "...as one-off events that do not feed through to longer-lasting inflation pressures," but in this case the all encompassing nature of Trump's tariffs could possibly lead to an aggressive global trade war. That is to say, all of this uncertainty is being reflected in the numbers. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html

Inflation Ran High in February as Consumer Spending Increased

 This February, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.3% for the month and 2.8% year. This exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% objective, telling us that U.S. inflation remained high this month. After a drop in January, consumer spending grew by 0.4%, but the real gain was only 0.1% after accounting for inflation. Purchases of durable items accounted for a significant amount of the spending growth, potentially in anticipation of Trump's anticipated tariffs, which could raise costs even more.

The current level of inflation, along with anticipated tariffs, has caused consumer sentiment to decline. Inflation forecasts are now at 5%, which is their highest level in years. According to these patterns, people are becoming more and more cautious about rising prices even when spending is staying the same, and policymakers may need to take further steps to reduce inflation without slowing economic growth.

www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2025-03-28/inflation-ran-a-little-hotter-in-february-as-spending-rose

Donald Trump is planning on Introducing a 25% tariff on imported cars starting April 2nd

 Donald Trump is planning on Introducing a 25% tariff on imported cars starting April 2nd, which is aimed at bringing car manufacturing back to America. In the long term, carmakers must decide whether to overhaul their supply or tank the losses with the possibility that these tariffs change or get reversed. Moving production to the U.S. would cost a lot in time and money. This change would require factories to be revamped and new infrastructure to be created. Ironically, even Tesla, which manufactures in America, relies on imported parts and will also be impacted from these new policies. Predictions say car sales could drop by 1-2.5 million units this year due to higher prices. This policy will impact both new and expensive cars as well as older or lower end models. The impact of these tariffs will likely lead to fewer, more expensive cars and limit choices for American consumers.

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/03/31/donald-trumps-plan-for-american-carmaking-is-full-of-potholes

Projected GDP for Q1 Decreases by 2%

Originally in the 4th quarter of 2024, there was a projected GDP growth of 2.3%. However, projections now indicate a growth at merely 0.3%. This would be a relatively weak amount of growth in the years following COVID. The slowing growth of the country is beginning to worry experts, investors, and citizens alike. As uncertainty of the economy remains steady, it is unclear whether or not Trump's policies will steer America to a negative path.

The growth rate will slowly build back up towards what is currently projected, with forecasts of 1.4% growth in Q2, 1.6% in Q3, and 2% in Q4. Though with projections having decreased as of late, it is unclear as to whether or not these predictions will successfully predict a steady increase in GDP growth. One thing is clear in this time of uncertainty, the administration will want to rethink their strategies if they wish to get themselves out of the hole they’ve put themselves in, and begin to grow at a steady rate once more. 

 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

U.S Tariff Drama increase

 

Jeremiah Osei

President Donald Trump has declared April 2, 2025, as "Liberation Day," a day for announcing new tariffs to reduce the U.S.'s reliance on foreign goods. According to USA Today, Trump's plan to announce tariffs on Wednesday targets all countries to curb foreign goods, potentially raising prices but encouraging U.S. investment. Trump claims his tariffs won't just target nations that contribute most to the U.S. trade deficit.

“You’d start with all countries,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night. “There’s not a cutoff.”  Trump's Goal with this is to force the U.S to  Export and produce things more domestically. Trump’s remarks provided clarification on the scope of the tariffs after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the U.S. would be most impacted by the tariffs. Bessent has called these the “Dirty 15” countries.  How this will affect the geopolitical ramifications of Trump's tariff policies has been significant. By taking a more aggressive stance on trade, the U.S. under Trump distanced itself from long-standing allies and international trade agreements. The administration’s "America First" approach led to tensions within the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a reevaluation of multilateral trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Site :https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/31/trump-tariffs-liberation-day-live-updates/82731267007/

FED Decides to Keep Rates Steady Amid Tariff War

The Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision: A Cautious Approach Amid Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting, signaling a patient approach to rate cuts amid heightened economic uncertainty. Significant shifts in U.S. trade, immigration, and fiscal policies have led Fed officials to revise their growth expectations downward while adjusting inflation forecasts upward. These changes have delayed the projected return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target and increased concerns about a potential economic slowdown.

Why the Fed Is Holding Rates Steady

The Fed faces a challenging economic environment where both inflation and recession risks are rising. While financial markets and survey data indicate growing concerns, the Fed remains cautious, emphasizing that the unemployment rate will be a key determinant in future rate decisions. If unemployment rises, rate cuts could be on the horizon; however, until then, Fed officials prefer to hold rates steady. The majority of officials have also revised their 2025 interest rate projections upward, suggesting a slower path toward easing monetary policy.

Revised Rate Path and Policy Shifts

Fed officials anticipate a gradual rate-cutting cycle, with the median projection showing 50 basis points of cuts in both 2025 and 2026. However, internal divisions have emerged, with a growing number of officials expecting to hold rates steady for longer. Uncertainty remains high, and policy pivots under the Trump administration have increased inflationary risks, further complicating the timing of rate adjustments. The March meeting highlighted the Fed’s balancing act: responding to inflation concerns while managing the risk of an economic downturn.

Economic and Market Implications

The Fed’s cautious stance has broad implications for the economy and financial markets. Bond markets may see a steeper yield curve as investors adjust to the prospect of prolonged higher rates. Consumer and business borrowing costs will remain elevated, potentially dampening economic activity in the near term. While inflation concerns persist, slowing economic growth and weaker consumer confidence may prompt the Fed to reconsider its stance later in the year. Additionally, a gradual reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet—particularly through a slower quantitative tightening (QT) process—will be closely monitored for potential market volatility.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act

The Fed’s decision to keep rates steady reflects its cautious approach to balancing inflation and growth risks. With economic uncertainty mounting and inflation expectations shifting, future rate cuts will depend on evolving labor market conditions and broader economic trends. Whether this strategy successfully navigates the challenges ahead or signals deeper economic concerns remains to be seen.

Article Link: https://www.pimco.com/gbl/en/insights/opposing-forces-complicate-the-feds-dual-mandate

The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on the Global Economy

The global economy in 2025 is facing a lot of uncertainty, largely because of recent political decisions and ongoing tensions around trade policies. In the U.S., President Trump’s tariff strategies are causing concerns about rising inflation and the possibility of economic slowdown. These tariffs have caused a lot of volatility in the markets, leading investors to flock to safer assets like gold. At the same time, the European Union is preparing its own countermeasures, which could also disrupt global trade. While some experts fear that these measures will stunt global growth, others believe that the world economy might still hold steady, thanks to key markets like China and the European Union. However, the overall outlook is less optimistic, with global growth projections dropping from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has also revised its GDP forecast for 2025 down to 1.7%, signaling a slowdown. With inflation in the U.S. expected to edge up to 2.7%, up from previous forecasts, it’s clear that the current economic situation will require careful monitoring. The combination of tariffs, inflationary pressures, and market uncertainty means that we might be heading into a period of economic instability, both in the U.S. and globally. As governments and economists adjust their strategies, the coming months will reveal how these policies play out and whether the global economy can weather the storm.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/26/economy/auto-tariffs-announcement/index.html

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

 In March, U.S. consumer confidence experienced its fourth consecutive monthly decline where it reached a 12-year low. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell by 7.2 points to 92.9 which missed expectations of 94.5. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2 which is significantly below the threshold of 80, signaling a potential recession. This decline suggests that concerns about the economy and labor market are increasingly influencing the financial decisions of individuals.

The decrease in consumer confidence can be attributed to growing anxieties over tariffs and persistent inflation, which remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Macy's have expressed concerns about economic uncertainties and adjusted their profit forecasts accordingly. Additionally, while purchasing intentions for homes and cars have declined, there has been an uptick in plans to buy big-ticket items like appliances. One reason for this could be that consumers aim to make purchases before anticipated tariff-induced price increases. These trends highlight the complex dynamics of consumer behavior amid economic uncertainty.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consumer-confidence-in-where-the-economy-is-headed-hits-12-year-low.html