The S&P 500 finished higher on Friday. This marked its fourth consecutive gain and brought it close to a record as investors responded to lower-than-expected inflation data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, came in slightly below estimates. This strengthened expectations for an interest-rate cut next week, with markets pricing in an 87% chance. Major indexes all finished the day in positive territory. Additionally, tech and consumer sentiment data improved market confidence. Stocks like Salesforce, Unity, and Albemarle performed well due to upgrades and earnings. However, Netflix shares fell after it announced a $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film studio and HBO Max. Overall, markets showed weekly gains, and investor optimism rose significantly, with sentiment reaching its least bearish level since January.
Friday, December 5, 2025
Monday, December 1, 2025
The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for
Warehouse real estate is cooling into balance after a wild few years. E-commerce is still strong, but tenants now care more about location, power, and efficiency than raw square footage. New construction has slowed, onshoring is adding steady demand, and rents in some oversupplied markets are slipping a bit before they stabilize. In the big-box segment, vacancies are near cyclical peaks and builders are pulling back, while third-party logistics firms like Ryder and DHL drive fresh leasing. Proximity to ports and population centers matters more as trucking capacity tightens and transportation eats a bigger share of supply-chain costs. Power is now a pricing lever too, as companies want buildings that can support automation and higher energy loads.
Looking to 2026, watch three themes. First, reshoring and defense spending may revive older industrial corridors and lift warehouse absorption, with some estimates pointing to a large boost in demand over the next five years. Second, strategy is shifting from bigger to smarter, as Amazon and others favor newer, taller, well-located facilities over sheer scale. Third, AI and property tech are moving from buzz to utility, helping owners pick sites, manage inventory, and predict maintenance to cut costs. If interest rates ease and policy uncertainty fades, this sector is set up for a slow, healthier climb rather than another boom-bust cycle.
source : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/warehouse-real-estate-rebalance.html
Sunday, November 30, 2025
America is headed for a fiscal cliff. Here’s how to stop it.
The U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff where there are huge federal debts, an end to tax breaks, and expiration of spending caps. All of this could result in the debt being even higher. This could lead to higher borrowing costs,, higher taxes, a recession, and living standards decreasing for many. Stand Together recommends both parties work together to eliminate programs that are wasteful and stop relying on short-term fixes. This is concerning to me. My family is already struggling. I keep thinking how Trump keeps saying the economy is better, but it's not and its hurting middle class families. https://standtogether.org/stories/the-economy/america-is-headed-for-a-fiscal-cliff-in-2025-how-to-stop-it?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=STTOTGR_IN_2025_PRG-PUB_GOOGLE_50SCROLL_STBP-STMAIN-NB-BROAD&utm_content=ARTL_EPICLAUNCH-826229_V1_TXT&utm_term=economic%20growth&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22751714065&gbraid=0AAAAAo3bCM6ZZV2p1IIMzwzMM_oDZYXm8&gclid=CjwKCAiA86_JBhAIEiwA4i9Ju9zJ6sF87dSM1idJSQJCMuV2y7LvSJjh33wDU9pL1i8JWU8rV0Sj2hoCkJIQAvD_BwE
Black Friday's Unexpected Slowdown Weighs on Retailers
What was expected to be one of the busiest shopping days of the year instead delivered a surprising sense of disappointment for many retailers. According to CNBC, Black Friday foot traffic and sales fell short of expectations, leaving stores with weaker-than-hoped results.
Analysts noted that shoppers showed up later in the day and spent more cautiously, opting for targeted purchases instead of the doorbuster frenzy that once defined the holiday. Retailers had hoped early deals and heavy advertising would boost momentum, but inflation-weary consumers remained selective with their spending.
The muted turnout became most visible in major malls, where crowds were thinner and lines shorter. While some online sales grew, they weren’t enough to fully offset the slowdown with the in person shopping, creating challenges for stores that rely heavily on Black Friday revenue to close out the year on a high note.
Industry experts say that changing shopping habits like shifting toward online browsing and more spread-out holiday sales are making traditional Black Friday surges less reliable than in the past. Many consumers now prefer to shop during extended deal periods rather than crowd into stores on a single day.
As retailers reassess their expectations for the rest of the holiday season, the question becomes whether shoppers will return in December with stronger demand, or whether this year’s Black Friday is the latest sign of a broader shift in how Americans shop during the holidays.
Link to Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/black-friday-shopping-retail-letdown.html
Economic Weaknesses are Emerging, Wall Street Seems Unconcerned
In 2025, major U.S. stock indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have reached multiple record highs. Their rise has been driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue lowering interest rates. At the same time, several key economic indicators point to growing weakness in the real economy. Commercial mortgage-backed security delinquencies have reached an all-time high, subprime auto loan delinquencies are rising faster than they did during the Great Recession, and severe credit card delinquencies are at their highest level since 2011. These trends suggest that businesses and consumers may be in a more fragile position than the stock market’s performance suggests.
Even with these warning signs, history provides reassurance for long-term investors. Economic downturns are inevitable, but they tend to be short compared with expansion periods. Since World War II, recessions have typically lasted less than a year while expansions have often continued for many years. Stock market data shows a similar pattern, with bear markets tending to be brief and bull markets lasting far longer. Over long periods, investors who stay focused on the long term have historically been rewarded.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foundation-u-economy-appears-breaking-144400992.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHDw8WXhyt3gFCGYrc862oXfMbUHmcLNGL395ZOOwOa7x_SrD19kCCSsD--d3BVL27eLc7SHVlwJshYHhZCjXyoPNdt0MSdwJc2KaNS8xkr3HMRtqGHZnOmrPo5iOedGa-YUAiCR_RNkJTQTwuLBDfVdkdQIEhmKtu_nW1Hj5JdR
The U.S. Sees A Great Decline in International Students and Billions in Economic Losses
New international student enrollment at U.S. colleges dropped by 17% in the fall of 2025, according to a report from the U.S. Department of State and the Institute of International Education. This drop is largely due to stricter visa restrictions and other policy changes under the Trump administration.
Over the 2024-2025 academic year, international students at U.S. colleges and universities contributed nearly $55 billion to the U.S. economy including tuition revenue as well as student spending. The drop in enrollment this year is projected to cost the economy about $1.1 billion, according to NAFSA. A separate analysis by Implan found that the drop in enrollment amounts to a nearly $1 billion loss to GDP.
Economists note that international students support local businesses, create jobs, and generate tax revenue, and that before the visa restrictions nearly 1.2 million international students studied in the U.S. However, international student enrollment has been declining for two years now beginning in 2024. Changing attitudes abroad about studying in the U.S. and the more restrictive visa policies have accelerated the decline.
The article notes that while international student enrollment has broader economic effects, colleges and universities and the students they serve are the hardest hit. Because many international students pay full tuition, their enrollment helps fund academic programs, faculty positions, and financial aid for U.S. students. Ted Mitchell, president of the American Council on Education notes that full-paying international students often enable scholarships for domestic students, meaning the decline strains student support and institutional budgets.
I think besides the economic consequences, there's a significant soft power cost because U.S. universities have been one of the nation's strongest tools of global influence. With the decline in international students, other countries like Canada and Australia can gain ground in attracting global talent, and that could shift diplomatic and cultural influence in the future away from the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/30/international-student-enrollment-decline.html
Saturday, November 29, 2025
Inflation, Policy Shifts, and the Uncertain Path Ahead
The global economy is entering a period of slower growth, and many of the pressures driving this shift are becoming harder to ignore. Rising tariffs, ongoing supply-chain complications, and geopolitical tensions have kept production costs elevated, which in turn has sustained higher-than-expected inflation across many countries. Even though major economies avoided recession recently, underlying structural weaknesses are becoming more visible. This combination of slowing momentum and persistent price pressures has created an environment where central banks must tread carefully, balancing inflation control with the risk of tightening financial conditions too much.
In the United States, the situation reflects this broader uncertainty. The recent government shutdown delivered a noticeable hit to output, and while consumer spending has stayed resilient, business investment is starting to cool as firms wait for clearer direction on interest rates and fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering rates to support borrowing and investment, but this comes with its own risks if inflation hasn’t fully stabilized. As a result, the U.S. economy now sits at a crossroads, still expanding, but increasingly vulnerable. How policymakers respond in the coming months will determine whether 2026 brings renewed growth or a more pronounced economic slowdown.
Source:
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2025_67b10c01-en.html?
Friday, November 28, 2025
Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks
There is a lot of concern about the current health of the U.S. labor market. The market itself has been showing signs of weakening, even with the lack of data being released as a result of the government shutdown. In the past couple of weeks, ADP has been the source of data regarding the labor market. They have reported that there was a loss of 13,500 jobs a week in the private company sector over the span of the last four weeks. As a frame of reference, there was a loss of 2,500 per week in the previous update that was given. As a result of the government shutdown, there will again not be a lot of data to use for the FED when it meets again in December. Advocation for a cut has shifted the market to expect a cut to rates in the next month, and there is little data that will be released to alter that expectation. The Goldman team has said that they believe that there will be two more cuts following the December rate cut, come the new year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-losses-accelerated-in-the-past-four-weeks-adp-reports-.html
The Debate Over Minnesota Welfare Fraud and Somalia
A recent City Journal report claims that money stolen in several large Minnesota welfare fraud schemes may have indirectly reached the Somalia-based terror group Al-Shabaab. Citing unnamed federal counterterrorism sources, the article argues that fraudulently obtained U.S. funds, particularly from Minnesota’s Somali community, are sometimes sent overseas through informal “hawala” money-transfer networks, where Al-Shabaab allegedly takes a cut. The report links this claim to major fraud scandals such as the “Feeding Our Future” case, which has resulted in more than 50 convictions tied to an alleged $300 million pandemic-era scam, along with newer fraud cases involving Medicaid Housing Stabilization Services and autism services. Some former investigators and political figures quoted in the article say the issue has been under-addressed due to political sensitivities around Minnesota’s large Somali population.
Federal prosecutors, however, have not charged anyone in these cases with terrorism-related offenses, focusing instead on large-scale financial theft. Still, former law enforcement officials say that even unintentional remittances can benefit Al-Shabaab because the group taxes economic activity inside Somalia. Critics argue that this creates a risk that stolen U.S. welfare funds could indirectly support terrorism. Others note that the claims rely heavily on anecdotal sources rather than confirmed evidence, showing the need for careful investigation rather than broad assumptions about Minnesota’s Somali community.
End of the "Rip Off" Economy
This article is focused on how AI is beginning to rapidly reduce the information advantages which was allowing companies to overcharge consumers. AI gives people price comparisons, diagnostic help, and is able to weaken the normal imbalance between customer and consumer. This article reveals that AI is going to help people with identifying quality, make better/more informed choices, avoid hidden issues. Markets are improving but industries such as home repairs, law, or real estate still have a large information gap that costs consumers millions to billions of dollars every year.
AI is already prevalent and working in some apps used to compare prices, report issues, etc. But the article also highlights that business will implement AI which creates a competitive environment for both sides. The "Rip Off Economy" is not gone but is definitely declining as of late.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy