The Fed Pauses Rates

A major recent economic event was the Federal Reserve’s choice to hold interest rates steady after raising them repeatedly over the past two years. This move signals that inflation is finally cooling, but the Fed isn’t confident enough yet to start cutting rates.Inflation has slowed, especially in energy and goods, but core prices are still slightly above the Fed’s 2% goal. By pausing, the Fed is trying to support the economy without risking a rebound in inflation.

The decision immediately affected markets: mortgage rates leveled off, the stock market reacted positively, and businesses gained a clearer sense of short-term financial conditions. Still, borrowing costs remain high, meaning investment and hiring may stay slower for now.

Overall, the Fed’s pause shows an economy that’s stabilizing but not fully out of the woods. The next few months will reveal whether inflation continues to fall or if more action is needed. 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary20250730a.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Bessent says U.S. will finish the year with 3% GDP growth, sees ‘very strong’ holiday season

        Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it has been a very strong holiday season for the economy and predicted that the US would end the year at 3% real GDP. Recent GDP figured show a contracting 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a 3.8% growth in second quarter, and now the Atlanta fed estimates the third-quarter at 3.5%. With these numbers being said consumers, who's spending accounts for 70% of the US. GDP remain worried about the state of the economy. According to The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey came at 53.3 in December which is up 4.5% from November but down 28% from last year which causes reason for concern. 

        With people continuing being concerned over these rising price concerns, President Trump has pushed back on the idea that America are struggling financially. Bessent followed Trump by stating the administration was dealing with inflation issues leftover from the Biden administration. With that being said, it is hard to ignore that many of middle-class households feel the disconnect between reported growth and the financial strain. With Bessent stating "The American people don't know how good they have it" could cause a disconnect from the administration and the American people.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/07/bessent-gdp-growth.html

S&P 500 closes higher, notching four-day win streak and nearing record after light inflation reading

 The S&P 500 finished higher on Friday. This marked its fourth consecutive gain and brought it close to a record as investors responded to lower-than-expected inflation data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, came in slightly below estimates. This strengthened expectations for an interest-rate cut next week, with markets pricing in an 87% chance. Major indexes all finished the day in positive territory. Additionally, tech and consumer sentiment data improved market confidence. Stocks like Salesforce, Unity, and Albemarle performed well due to upgrades and earnings. However, Netflix shares fell after it announced a $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film studio and HBO Max. Overall, markets showed weekly gains, and investor optimism rose significantly, with sentiment reaching its least bearish level since January.

Stock market news for Dec. 5, 2025

The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for

 Warehouse real estate is cooling into balance after a wild few years. E-commerce is still strong, but tenants now care more about location, power, and efficiency than raw square footage. New construction has slowed, onshoring is adding steady demand, and rents in some oversupplied markets are slipping a bit before they stabilize. In the big-box segment, vacancies are near cyclical peaks and builders are pulling back, while third-party logistics firms like Ryder and DHL drive fresh leasing. Proximity to ports and population centers matters more as trucking capacity tightens and transportation eats a bigger share of supply-chain costs. Power is now a pricing lever too, as companies want buildings that can support automation and higher energy loads.

Looking to 2026, watch three themes. First, reshoring and defense spending may revive older industrial corridors and lift warehouse absorption, with some estimates pointing to a large boost in demand over the next five years. Second, strategy is shifting from bigger to smarter, as Amazon and others favor newer, taller, well-located facilities over sheer scale. Third, AI and property tech are moving from buzz to utility, helping owners pick sites, manage inventory, and predict maintenance to cut costs. If interest rates ease and policy uncertainty fades, this sector is set up for a slow, healthier climb rather than another boom-bust cycle.

source : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/warehouse-real-estate-rebalance.html

America is headed for a fiscal cliff. Here’s how to stop it.

 The U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff where there are huge federal debts, an end to tax breaks, and expiration of spending caps. All of this could result in the debt being even higher. This could lead to higher borrowing costs,, higher taxes, a recession, and living standards decreasing for many. Stand Together recommends both parties work together to eliminate programs that are wasteful and stop relying on short-term fixes.  This is concerning to me. My family is already struggling. I keep thinking how Trump keeps saying the economy is better, but it's not and its hurting middle class families. https://standtogether.org/stories/the-economy/america-is-headed-for-a-fiscal-cliff-in-2025-how-to-stop-it?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=STTOTGR_IN_2025_PRG-PUB_GOOGLE_50SCROLL_STBP-STMAIN-NB-BROAD&utm_content=ARTL_EPICLAUNCH-826229_V1_TXT&utm_term=economic%20growth&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22751714065&gbraid=0AAAAAo3bCM6ZZV2p1IIMzwzMM_oDZYXm8&gclid=CjwKCAiA86_JBhAIEiwA4i9Ju9zJ6sF87dSM1idJSQJCMuV2y7LvSJjh33wDU9pL1i8JWU8rV0Sj2hoCkJIQAvD_BwE

Black Friday's Unexpected Slowdown Weighs on Retailers

    What was expected to be one of the busiest shopping days of the year instead delivered a surprising sense of disappointment for many retailers. According to CNBC, Black Friday foot traffic and sales fell short of expectations, leaving stores with weaker-than-hoped results.

    Analysts noted that shoppers showed up later in the day and spent more cautiously, opting for targeted purchases instead of the doorbuster frenzy that once defined the holiday. Retailers had hoped early deals and heavy advertising would boost momentum, but inflation-weary consumers remained selective with their spending.

    The muted turnout became most visible in major malls, where crowds were thinner and lines shorter. While some online sales grew, they weren’t enough to fully offset the slowdown with the in person shopping, creating challenges for stores that rely heavily on Black Friday revenue to close out the year on a high note.

    Industry experts say that changing shopping habits like shifting toward online browsing and more spread-out holiday sales are making traditional Black Friday surges less reliable than in the past. Many consumers now prefer to shop during extended deal periods rather than crowd into stores on a single day.

    As retailers reassess their expectations for the rest of the holiday season, the question becomes whether shoppers will return in December with stronger demand, or whether this year’s Black Friday is the latest sign of a broader shift in how Americans shop during the holidays.

Link to Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/black-friday-shopping-retail-letdown.html 

Economic Weaknesses are Emerging, Wall Street Seems Unconcerned

    In 2025, major U.S. stock indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have reached multiple record highs. Their rise has been driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue lowering interest rates. At the same time, several key economic indicators point to growing weakness in the real economy. Commercial mortgage-backed security delinquencies have reached an all-time high, subprime auto loan delinquencies are rising faster than they did during the Great Recession, and severe credit card delinquencies are at their highest level since 2011. These trends suggest that businesses and consumers may be in a more fragile position than the stock market’s performance suggests.

    Even with these warning signs, history provides reassurance for long-term investors. Economic downturns are inevitable, but they tend to be short compared with expansion periods. Since World War II, recessions have typically lasted less than a year while expansions have often continued for many years. Stock market data shows a similar pattern, with bear markets tending to be brief and bull markets lasting far longer. Over long periods, investors who stay focused on the long term have historically been rewarded.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foundation-u-economy-appears-breaking-144400992.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHDw8WXhyt3gFCGYrc862oXfMbUHmcLNGL395ZOOwOa7x_SrD19kCCSsD--d3BVL27eLc7SHVlwJshYHhZCjXyoPNdt0MSdwJc2KaNS8xkr3HMRtqGHZnOmrPo5iOedGa-YUAiCR_RNkJTQTwuLBDfVdkdQIEhmKtu_nW1Hj5JdR

The U.S. Sees A Great Decline in International Students and Billions in Economic Losses

New international student enrollment at U.S. colleges dropped by 17% in the fall of 2025, according to a report from the U.S. Department of State and the Institute of International Education. This drop is largely due to stricter visa restrictions and other policy changes under the Trump administration. 

Over the 2024-2025 academic year, international students at U.S. colleges and universities contributed nearly $55 billion to the U.S. economy including tuition revenue as well as student spending. The drop in enrollment this year is projected to cost the economy about $1.1 billion, according to NAFSA. A separate analysis by Implan found that the drop in enrollment amounts to a nearly $1 billion loss to GDP.

Economists note that international students support local businesses, create jobs, and generate tax revenue, and that before the visa restrictions nearly 1.2 million international students studied in the U.S. However, international student enrollment has been declining for two years now beginning in 2024. Changing attitudes abroad about studying in the U.S. and the more restrictive visa policies have accelerated the decline.

The article notes that while international student enrollment has broader economic effects, colleges and universities and the students they serve are the hardest hit. Because many international students pay full tuition, their enrollment helps fund academic programs, faculty positions, and financial aid for U.S. students. Ted Mitchell, president of the American Council on Education notes that full-paying international students often enable scholarships for domestic students, meaning the decline strains student support and institutional budgets.

I think besides the economic consequences, there's a significant soft power cost because U.S. universities have been one of the nation's strongest tools of global influence. With the decline in international students, other countries like Canada and Australia can gain ground in attracting global talent, and that could shift diplomatic and cultural influence in the future away from the U.S.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/30/international-student-enrollment-decline.html

Inflation, Policy Shifts, and the Uncertain Path Ahead

 The global economy is entering a period of slower growth, and many of the pressures driving this shift are becoming harder to ignore. Rising tariffs, ongoing supply-chain complications, and geopolitical tensions have kept production costs elevated, which in turn has sustained higher-than-expected inflation across many countries. Even though major economies avoided recession recently, underlying structural weaknesses are becoming more visible. This combination of slowing momentum and persistent price pressures has created an environment where central banks must tread carefully, balancing inflation control with the risk of tightening financial conditions too much.

In the United States, the situation reflects this broader uncertainty. The recent government shutdown delivered a noticeable hit to output, and while consumer spending has stayed resilient, business investment is starting to cool as firms wait for clearer direction on interest rates and fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering rates to support borrowing and investment, but this comes with its own risks if inflation hasn’t fully stabilized. As a result, the U.S. economy now sits at a crossroads, still expanding, but increasingly vulnerable. How policymakers respond in the coming months will determine whether 2026 brings renewed growth or a more pronounced economic slowdown.

Source: 

https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2025_67b10c01-en.html?

Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks

 There is a lot of concern about the current health of the U.S. labor market.  The market itself has been showing signs of weakening, even with the lack of data being released as a result of the government shutdown.  In the past couple of weeks, ADP has been the source of data regarding the labor market.  They have reported that there was a loss of 13,500 jobs a week in the private company sector over the span of the last four weeks.  As a frame of reference, there was a loss of 2,500 per week in the previous update that was given.  As a result of the government shutdown, there will again not be a lot of data to use for the FED when it meets again in December.  Advocation for a cut has shifted the market to expect a cut to rates in the next month, and there is little data that will be released to alter that expectation.  The Goldman team has said that they believe that there will be two more cuts following the December rate cut, come the new year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-losses-accelerated-in-the-past-four-weeks-adp-reports-.html