ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN DR. SKOSPLES' NATIONAL INCOME AND BUSINESS CYCLES COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Friday, November 8, 2019
Why a Slowdown in Manufacturing Matters to the US
The manufacturing sector has long been the lifeblood of the US economy.
In recent times, however, that's not the case as the US is not as dependent on manufacturing as it once was. This doesn't mean it's not important. If the sector sees drops it will affect the local towns and cities where these manufacturing industries are located.
The US now has the provision of services as it's the main driver. Economists make it known that as a country becomes richer, people spend less on goods and more on services.
Manufacturing, however, is still a very important part of the US economy as it contributes about 1/3 of total GDP. Even though manufacturing is not a huge share of the U.S. economy, it "punches higher than its weight in the economic cycle because there are so many other parts of the economy that are linked to it," Williamson, with IHS Markit, said.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/making-sense/why-a-slowdown-in-manufacturing-matters-for-the-u-s-economy
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Xerox May Takeover HP For A Possible $27 Bn
WSJ Article
In a bold move for two fading tech companies, Xerox seeks to claim the computer and printer manufacturer HP for an estimated 27 billion dollars. Xerox is approximately one third the size of HP, at around $8 bn market value. They are set to discuss matters on Tuesday. This comes as both companies are in "cost-cutting mode," with HP recently announcing that it would be cutting around 9,000 jobs by 2022. These two companies used to be much more househod names, but have failed to keep up with the new digital pace set forth by new cloud storage companies, especially hurting Xerox. I'm not sure this is a very good move for them, as they show no real sign of technological breakthroughs, and this is what as already been hurting them. We shall see how they get on.
In a bold move for two fading tech companies, Xerox seeks to claim the computer and printer manufacturer HP for an estimated 27 billion dollars. Xerox is approximately one third the size of HP, at around $8 bn market value. They are set to discuss matters on Tuesday. This comes as both companies are in "cost-cutting mode," with HP recently announcing that it would be cutting around 9,000 jobs by 2022. These two companies used to be much more househod names, but have failed to keep up with the new digital pace set forth by new cloud storage companies, especially hurting Xerox. I'm not sure this is a very good move for them, as they show no real sign of technological breakthroughs, and this is what as already been hurting them. We shall see how they get on.
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
The US Collected $7 Billion in Tariffs in September
New data released by Trade Partnership, an economic consulting firm, tariff revenues reached a record of $7 billion in September, as new tariffs were introduced to apparel, electronics and other consumer good from China. This has been putting immense pressure on American businesses that import Chinese products - and their customers. While tariff collections have increased, so have trade-war related
expenses. To help mitigate the losses to U.S. agricultural exporters,
who have suffered from international tariff retaliation, the Agriculture
Department has authorized $28 billion in payouts to farmers.
What do you think this tariff revenue will be used for? How big of an economic impact will removing tariffs have?
What do you think this tariff revenue will be used for? How big of an economic impact will removing tariffs have?
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Iran to Inject Uranium gas into 1044 Centrifuges in Defiance of the 2015 Nuclear Deal
AP Article
In a fortified mountain facility, Iran will begin injecting Uranium gas into its Fordo site, Iran's State Department also declared that it would renew a waiver to allow Rosatom, a Russian state-run nuclear company, to continue conversion work at this facility. This will increase pressure on European nations that remain in this accord to let Iran sell crude oil abroad. If not, President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran will pull out of the deal further in early January 2020. This mostly comes in response to France's failure to make good on its proposed $15 billion line of credit trade mechanism, but Rouhani said that Iran's breaches of the agreement could be reversed if Europe allows Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions on crude oil sales abroad. Seems fair to me! What do you think?
In a fortified mountain facility, Iran will begin injecting Uranium gas into its Fordo site, Iran's State Department also declared that it would renew a waiver to allow Rosatom, a Russian state-run nuclear company, to continue conversion work at this facility. This will increase pressure on European nations that remain in this accord to let Iran sell crude oil abroad. If not, President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran will pull out of the deal further in early January 2020. This mostly comes in response to France's failure to make good on its proposed $15 billion line of credit trade mechanism, but Rouhani said that Iran's breaches of the agreement could be reversed if Europe allows Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions on crude oil sales abroad. Seems fair to me! What do you think?
US services companies growth rebounds in October
This past Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management reported that its service index reached 54.7% over this past month, higher then September's 52.6%. They also reported that measure of sales, new orders and employment all rebounded from last month. Being that service sector, more then 2/3 of the U.S economy, grew this past month, it makes October the 117 month of straight growth. That being said, many employers are claiming that they are having difficulty finding workers due to the low unemployment rate of 3.6%. Im curious if we will continue to see growth in the service sector in the near future even though the trade war has created friction for both economies.
Monday, November 4, 2019
Apple Commits $2.5 Billion to Ease California Housing Crunch
Monday, Apple announced a $2.5 Billion plan to address the housing crisis in California. They are the latest big tech company to devote money to a problem the economist and lawmakers believe it helped to create. Apple plans to invest $1 Billion affordable housing and plans another $1 Billion to buy mortgages. Apple also intends to make a 40-acre, $300 million dollar property in San Jose available for new affordable housing. Apple's housing plan is a response to the increasing pressure Silicon Valley's tech giants are under to play a more active role in the region's housing crisis. Local tech companies big and small have boomed, they have flooded the region with hundreds of thousands of highly paid employees, but the supply of housing has failed to keep pace.
Amazon is responsible for most Big Tech job growth since 2000
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/how-many-jobs-have-amazon-google-and-apple-created-since-2000.html
The five largest tech firms, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook have given jobs to over 1 million people since 2000. Alphabet, who is Google's parent company has grown the most out of the five firms, with an employee number in 2018 that was 347 times what it was in 2001. Out of the firms, Amazon has created the most jobs but they are also the only company that counts its part time employees into their head count. Although these companies have created over a million jobs they have also displaced entire industries and contributed to job losses as well. With the growing tech industry I'm interested to see how these companies will continue to affect job growth in the U.S.
Here's What the Federal Reserve Really Thinks About the Economy
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/federal-reserve-powell-economy-062539
The Fed recently ct interest rates again and say they have no intentions of doing it again. Trump has called for interest rates to go to zero so that the economy will experience a boost going into reelection. Powell claimed that a new trade deal with China will certainly help the economy speed back up, which would be good for Trump. But for the moment it appears as if the rates will be in a pause until some more information comes out on future expectations. Do you think we should push interest rates to zero? I think that it would be a wildly aggressive move and it would only force a recession sooner rather than later.
The Fed recently ct interest rates again and say they have no intentions of doing it again. Trump has called for interest rates to go to zero so that the economy will experience a boost going into reelection. Powell claimed that a new trade deal with China will certainly help the economy speed back up, which would be good for Trump. But for the moment it appears as if the rates will be in a pause until some more information comes out on future expectations. Do you think we should push interest rates to zero? I think that it would be a wildly aggressive move and it would only force a recession sooner rather than later.
HSBC faces challenges, Europe stocks slump
As Europe's largest lender, HSBC plays a crucial role in financial markets. Recently, their profits fell by 12%, key targets were missed, and stocks plummeted. A fair share of the turmoil and revenue problems come from the Asian markets, especially in light of the political protests in Hong Kong. Most of their money is made in the Greater China region and they are exposed to the problems in the region, which are currently centered around the protests. Hong Kong in particular is a key driver in revenue. Their shares were down by 2.1%. Some of the measures being considered are exit stock trading in some of the Western markets, selling their french retail bank. The political situation is projected to worsen in Hong Kong and HSBC needs to take steps to to protect their profits and credit having such deep ties economically to the financial markets there.
In the United States there has been a lot of push to raise minimum wage within the country. The latest case is the airport and hotel industry as they have pushed to increase their minimum wage to $20. With all of these industries pushing for an increase in wage, will we get to the point where prices for goods will just raise and we will be back in the same place we are now?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/03/business/economy/minimum-wage.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/03/business/economy/minimum-wage.html
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